Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-45%. Election night is going to be information overload. Washoe County2016 caucus winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Obama 51%, Romney 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Republican: 105,410Democrats: 102,422Unaffiliated: 53,048Others: 19,815. Co., as its sometimes referred to, has gone more closely for the statewide winner than any other big county. Trump also needs to drive up margins in Republican-leaning Western counties like Kent (Grand Rapids) and Ottawa (on the shores of Lake Michigan). Latest voter registration totals: 618,420 No party registration. In 2008, Obama carried this county outside Detroit by 9 percentage points but that winning margin was cut in half in 2012 with Michigan native Mitt Romney leading the GOP ticket. The most populous county in the state and home to Manchester and Nashua, Hillsborough twice voted narrowly for Bush and twice for Obama. This one of 99 counties made up 16 percent of Obama's total vote in 2012. Lets rank these counties from highest to lowest Democrat voting percentages in the 2008 election. If Clinton is going to win Utah, she will need to squeeze out as many Democrats as is possible in Salt Lake, and maybe win young people in those college towns, including Logan in Cache County (Utah State). But those states represent just 29, 18and six electoral votes, respectively. A Trump win is probably out of the question in a county thats home to Des Moines and the state capitol -- he finished third here in the caucuses behind first-place finisher Rubio and runner-up Cruz -- but he will go a long way toward carrying the state if he can keep it close. The meme compares information about former President Barack Obama in 2008 and President Donald Trump and Biden in 2020. Contributors wanted These are places that are demographically strong for Republicans in the abstract, but might have had something that kept them closer to 50-50.". The storied home of Reagan Democrats and the third most-populous county in the state, southeastern Michigans Macomb last went Republican at the presidential level in 2004. Enter Donald Trump. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 53%-46% - 2008: Obama 56%-42%. If you find this article meaningful and convincing, please share it far and wide. The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). 108,000 people. Have you looked at the results of these counties? Bellwether counties are already extremely rare, but some bellwether counties are better than others at highlighting a change in sentiment. We sorted the counties from highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (in the 2008 election). This sizable Cincinnati suburb has reflected the statewide margin in the last two presidential elections. Driving up the margins in those places will be key for Clinton. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention) . It is whiter than the rest of the state but has a slightly higher level of college degrees, although still it's just 28 percent. You have probably noticed by now that with each new section we write, we are relaxing the constraints to make it easier to build a case for the Democrats winning the 2020 election. Combinedwith general population growth, and this election had 27 million more participants. It is important to realise these counties have no allegiances whatsoever and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them based on merit. Neither Clinton nor Trump won here during the caucuses in this Mississippi River county. "We had to quietly move our parade," she says. Voter Demographics (9). Find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. Please keep this in mind as you continue to read through our bellwether analysis. "End of day, the solution is complicated but the problem is very simple," wrote a user who shared the meme on Instagram. David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, toldthe Wall Street Journal that the failure of typical bellwether counties reflects"the overall trend that we are seeing toward greater geographic polarization.". Side note Could the Florida Keys tell us who wins? If you take a coin and flip it 22 times. There are 25 counties with a Democrat percentage vote over 60%. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). Republicans have paid some attention. Relatively few counties across the nation switched party support in 2012, but Rockingham was one of them, flipping from Obama in 2008 to Romney. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. In fact, a national coalition of election security officials described the general election as "the most secure in American history," per USA TODAY. Ask our loving God to act in dealing with corruption, restoring justice and integrity in the nation, and prayerfully consider who you should share information with and what your role might be. Republican county chairman Michael Barnett said hed celebrate if Trump could do better than Romneys 41 percent total here in 2012. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. . Home to Davenport, the states third-largest city, Scott County is also packed with independents who can swing either way. Obeng (2016) was similarly skeptical, noting that bellwethers run the risk of producing models that explain what has happened but cannot predict the future. The pattern has become clear between the last two presidential elections and governor's race early results from rural counties show Republicans up, but Northern Virginia counties, especially Fairfax, have more than made up the difference. This populous, longtime Republican county has shifted in the last two presidential elections, as demograpic change has swept the metro Atlanta area. Latest voter registration totals: 216,082No party registration. From 1980 through 2016, there were19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. In communities . Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? Other swing counties to watch: Monroe and Calhoun. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-44% - 2008: McCain 54%-45%. Furthermore, consider the fact that bellwethers dont just have a random 50% chance at winning we should expect them to have a better than 50% chance of getting it right. In Westmoreland County, Virginia - a small, rural community south of Washington DC that's failed to be a bellwether only twice since 1928, and is home to twice the number of African Americans than the national average - he beat Mr Biden by 16 points. It's another one of those white, college-educated areas that could prove key to this election. In Valencia County, New Mexico, which had correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1952, Mr Trump won by 10 points; in Indiana's Vigo County, which backed every president bar two since 1888, he prevailed by 15 points. The Atlantic wonders why we're still arguing about masks. It requires a lot more than pure luck.). For Trump to win, he has to carry this populous Detroit suburb. There are more than 3,000 counties in the United States, but in presidential elections they are not all created equal. How Does The Electoral College Work And Is It Fair? Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Take the time to ponder and realize that this is no mean feat! Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. Situated on the southern shore of Lake Erie in Ohio, Ottawa County is one of America's most accurate bellwether counties - a region where voters correctly pick the president, election after election for decades at a time. A surge in African-American turnout helped deliver Cincinnatis Hamilton County to Obama in 2008, making him the first Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson to carry the population hub of southwest Ohio. "Especially considering there's a lot of things that has been done that don't get reported at all.". Free and open-source. "This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.". Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. In 2020, a single. Republicans also have to do drive up their own turnout in big population areas like Charlotte, but also have to drive up margins in lots of medium-size population counties like Union (Charlotte suburb). 1 County 61947 People 2012 Predicting since One county. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Cruz2012: Obama 53%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 101,967Republicans: 75,145Unaffiliated:65,344Libertarian: 1,022. At one end of the I-4 corridor, Tampas Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida without winning Hillsborough. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. . Home to Tipton (population 3,199), Cedar has gone with the winner of every presidential and Senate race since 1992. Found an error on our site? (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-44%. Once-reliably Republican -- and essential to Republicans to help overcome the deficit they face in Las Vegas Clark County -- Washoe voted twice for Bush and then twice for Obama. University of Denver, 2. It went for Romney 54 to 44 percent, nearly reflecting the overall margin. It has a slightly higher Hispanic population than Jefferson County 19 percent, according to the Census which makes it an uphill challenge for Donald Trump. "When I came here in 1989, you couldn't be elected dog catcher if you weren't a Democrat," he says. Potential canaries in the coal mine, aside from Montgomery, include Wood, south of Toledo, and Stark, home to Canton and the pro-football Hall of Fame in northeastern Ohio. (The highest value being again 66.1%). The magnitude of the gap (or difference) is an indicator of the strength of the change in sentiment. Whether or not these less diverse, industry-dependent communities can regain their bellwether status in four years' time remains to be seen. Published Nov. 8, 2016 at 5:30 a.m. TIP: Find a coin, and flip it, and see how long it takes to (just) get 10 heads or 10 tails in a row. But when word got out, Trump supporters crashed it. 3. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 50%-49% - 2008: Obama 51%-48%.